Fecha: Lunes, Junio 6, 2022 - 20:40

Economic sanctions deliver bigger global shocks than ever before and are easier to evade 

Not since the 1930s has an economy the size of Russia’s been placed under such a wide array of commercial restrictions as those imposed in response to its invasion of Ukraine. But in contrast to Italy and Japan in the 1930s, Russia today is a major exporter of oil, grain, and other key commodities, and the global economy is far more integrated. As a result, today’s sanctions have global economic effects far greater than anything seen before. Their magnitude should prompt reconsideration of sanctions as a powerful policy instrument with major global economic implications.

Sanctions are not the only source of turmoil in the global economy. Energy prices have been rising since last year as the economic recovery from the pandemic encountered overburdened supply chains. Global food prices rose 28 percent in 2020 and 23 percent in 2021, and they surged 17 percent this year between February and March alone. The war has also harmed Ukraine directly as fighting has closed the country’s Black Sea ports, blocking its exports of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and other goods. 

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Fecha: Viernes, Mayo 27, 2022 - 21:14

The second estimate of GDP released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis show a decrease at an annual rate 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2022, worst than released last month.

The drop was due to a drcreased in exports, government spending and an increase in imports. Within exports, were widespread decreased in nondurable goods. The decreased in government spending reflected a reduced in defense spending on intermediate goods and services. And the increased in imports was led by increases in durable goods.

In general, in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of COVID-19 cases still restricted opperations and activities production in some parts inside and outside of the country.

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Análisis del OBELA         /          ( english version )

Cambio climático. Las advertencias del IPCC

Resumen:

Esta década es crucial para abandonar el uso de los combustibles fósiles. De acuerdo con el Instituto Internacional de Desarrollo Sustentable, los países ricos deben terminar con la producción de petróleo y gas para el año 2034 si no quieren exceder el techo de 1.5° C. Para ello los más ricos, que producen más de un tercio del petróleo y el gas del mundo, deben reducir la producción en un 74% para 2030. Los más pobres, que abastecen apenas una novena parte de la demanda mundial, deben recortarla en un 14%. Los productores medios restantes deberán bajar su producción entre 43% y 18%.

Rusia y Ucrania en guerra: la cereza del pastel de la inflación global postpandemia

Resumen:

A diferencia de Europa, Latinoamérica estaría a punto de experimentar un potencial crecimiento acompañado de inflación beneficiado por el conflicto armado, similar al ocurrido en la primera guerra mundial y en la década del 70. El crecimiento de las economías y el balance externo positivo serán atenuadores de los estragos de la inflación generalizada. Europa y EE. UU, por su lado, vivirá lento crecimiento y alta inflación, lo que hará de su recuperación un proceso más lento, al menos, hasta que la guerra llegue a su fin. 

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