OBELA Analysis

In 2025, the US government is threatening to impose tariffs on trade with Mexico, hoping to affect the Mexican economy and gain some additional advantages from such exchanges. As is well known, virtually all Mexican exports are destined for the United States, and a large part of them are the product of so-called value chains, in which Mexico is basically involved in the assembly and packaging of the final products. The reaction of the Mexican authorities and press suggests that something serious could indeed happen in the country.

The year began with a forecast of stagnation in inflation for the United States, while Asian countries expect to continue growing. The IMF forecast for the world was that the US would grow at a rate of 2.7%, while the global economy would expand at 3.3%, dragged down by Asia and emerging countries. However, early data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indicated that the US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter, a concerning sign for the global economic situation.

The first tripartite meeting between ASEAN, China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) took place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 26-27 May. Some of these countries are part of more than one minilateral body (see Table 1). This article will review the highlights of the summit and outline the possible role that the new alliance could play in the trade war between China and the US, the geopolitical tensions arising from the coup in Myanmar and the common agenda for the next BRICS summit in July.