OBELA Analysis

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are various scenarios of global socioeconomic changes projected by the IPCC up to 2100. These scenarios are structured around five different narratives representing possible socioeconomic evolution paths: Sustainable Development, Regional Competition, Rising Inequality, Fossil Fuel Dependency, and Moderate Development. This article will describe these pathways and what they mean.

In October 2008, following the instability and uncertainty caused by the U.S. financial crisis, the central banks of Brazil and Argentina signed a payment agreement in local currency. This was later extended to Mercosur countries. Since then, this mechanism has been replicated and extended by the BRICS. This article will analyze the alternatives that have arisen due to the instability of the dollar and the sanctions imposed by the US on 26 countries. It is an alternative to using the dollar as a means of payment and as a reserve unit.

On 29 April 2025, the Bureau of Economic Activity published that in the first quarter of the year, the US economy contracted by 0.3% as a result of the new tariffs. On the same date, the White House decided to relax tariff measures on the auto industry. The problem is that trade flows and global auto production are not overwhelmingly American. The advantages of the T-MEC and imports from Asia, both more than three decades old, cannot be reversed in a couple of years