Análisis

In January 2022, the IMF predicted a year of low growth with high inflation. Since then, the IMF has twice lowered its projections giving a gloomy outlook for global growth. OBELA estimated that the FED and the European Central Bank were in a dilemma where they would either ride with high inflation and some recovery or use the conventional monetary instruments of raising the interest rate and knock down the fragile consumption and investment dynamics to bring down inflation. There was a difference between the Fed having a monetary problem and the ECB recognising the geopolitical inflation issues. The result has been that both decided to raise interest rates and reduce liquidity, with predictable consequences.

On June 15, the Fed raised its target interest rate by 75 basis points, the most substantial increase since 1994. The rate has already reached 1.75%, the pre-pandemic level. It does not seem to be enough; the expectation is that it will get 3.5% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, political and media discourses are looking for who to blame for the highest inflation rate in the last 40 years. A recession comes next. 

Mexico is a mixed economy: its GDP ranks among the 20 largest countries in the world, some industrial branches have a global presence, and its workforce is internationally competitive; however, its performance in recent decades has been negligible to the point that, after the fall of 2020, it was one of the Latin American countries with the slowest economic recovery. What is the reality facing the Mexican economy?