inflation

New commodity price hikes

With the onset of the COVID19 pandemic and the application of the first measures of social isolation and the closure of non-essential economic activities, the financial market collapsed and the commodities market began a new cycle of price contraction.

The recovery of commodity prices has had two moments. The first was marked by strong injections of liquidity into the markets and low interest rates. The second moment occurred when the upward trend extended beyond the recovery of previous levels throughout 2021.

The effect of rising commodity prices has been a combination of multiple factors. Its behavior, although presented as a short-term trend, may induce inflationary processes in the long term.

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How 2021 is shaping up

Global inflation is rising rapidly in a year of uneven growth rates, higher than estimated in the US and the European Union (EU), and lower for all but the Asian economies.

The question is why inflation is being discussed when consumer price indices in the US and EU are stable, and what effect these discussions have on international interest rates.

To counteract the inflations produced by these causes, central banks are preparing to readjust interest rates, which are currently at their lowest real levels in decades.

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The effects of covid-19 on price indices

The slowdown in economic activities impacted manufacturing production linked to the world market, and likewise food processing and distribution. The world is approaching a food consumption crisis. There are growing problems in the production and distribution of basic foods that are widespread.
The effect of the economic and production slowdown caused by COVID-19 has been a rise in food prices and in the prices of basic goods, which, however, is not reflected in consumer price indices, in general, due to the strong deflation of fuels and other raw materials.
With the economic rationale of free markets, free international food trade became more profitable and the notion of food security was abandoned. We now see the consequences on prices and the risks on the lack of supplies

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The FED: follow the leader.

Since 1990, the idea of central bank independence from national governments has become universal. It materialised with constitutional changes in some countries and legal changes in others, which prevent the central bank from financing public finances, except for the G7 countries and China. This principle goes with the unrestricted opening of capital accounts and the complete deregulation of financial markets. Additionally, with 60% of the world's GDP in dollar bills, monetary policy and interest rates in the world are in the hands of the Fed, except in China.

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Bertin Acosta

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inflation

monetary policy

International Financial Architecture

Gas prices

Over the past year there has been a generalized increase in inflation around the world. The reasons for this are, on the one hand, the structural characteristics of each particular market and, on the other, the effects of fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies.

The economic contraction and slow recovery in production indicate that the demand for gas as a source of energy to power industry and electricity generation has not put pressure on the market.

Gas is an input for industry and power generation; higher international gas prices may increase overall production costs and lead to higher inflation.

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