OBELA Analysis

According to Copernicus data (the EU’s Earth observation programme), 2025 ranked as the third hottest year on record. Temperatures were just 0.01°C lower than in 2023 and 0.13°C lower than in 2024. From 2023 to 2025, global average temperatures exceeded pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) by over 1.5°C. This marked the first three-year period above this threshold, which the Paris Agreement set as a limit to avoid.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has changed the global geopolitical landscape and international trade. With oil prices rising and a risk of global recession, countries are urgently seeking alternatives. This article examines how the Israel-US war against Iran has changed energy trade.

The escalation of war against Iran, ignited on 28 February 2026, has sharpened global concerns over the stability of the international energy and monetary system. After the Yom Kippur War (1973), rising oil profits led to the term ‘petrodollar’. That year, the US made agreements for Saudi surpluses to be reinvested in US assets, a scheme later extended to OPEC.