OBELA Analysis

The financial architecture is undergoing a process of transformation. With the weakening and loss of confidence in the US dollar, the President of the People's Bank of China said on 23 March 2009 that the world needed a new reserve currency, given the instability of that currency in the foreign exchange market, as a result of the crisis of September 2008. The Chinese Government called for a new international reserve currency, once again, in 2013 after public fiscal impasses in the US Congress.

In 2025, the US government is threatening to impose tariffs on trade with Mexico, hoping to affect the Mexican economy and gain some additional advantages from such exchanges. As is well known, virtually all Mexican exports are destined for the United States, and a large part of them are the product of so-called value chains, in which Mexico is basically involved in the assembly and packaging of the final products. The reaction of the Mexican authorities and press suggests that something serious could indeed happen in the country.

The year began with a forecast of stagnation in inflation for the United States, while Asian countries expect to continue growing. The IMF forecast for the world was that the US would grow at a rate of 2.7%, while the global economy would expand at 3.3%, dragged down by Asia and emerging countries. However, early data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indicated that the US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter, a concerning sign for the global economic situation.