economic growth

Remittances and maquilas, the case of Central America

Mié, 03/17/2021 - 18:18 -- anegrete

Central America was the region most affected by the supply and demand crisis in the Americas. However, there was a great disparity in the declines of each country. There are two groups, the first lost less than seven years of production, and the second more than ten.
The lost production years are calculated by comparing real GDP in the second quarter of 2020, when social distancing measures were implemented in the Americas, with the quarterly GDP closest to its value.
In the least affected countries, it was migrant labor and the anchoring with the U.S. economy, via the maquila, that allowed them to lose few years of production and to recover more than half of the lost years.

Growth prospects in the latin american economies

Vie, 01/22/2021 - 15:24 -- cdeleon

The Latin American countries that improved the most during the third quarter of 2020 are those that will continue to grow in 2021. Economic performance is influenced by previous growth, restrictions to avoid contagion from covid-19 and fiscal and monetary policies. 

Costa Rica, Argentina, Jamaica, Ecuador and Chile had problems with large company exits, social unrest, dependence on the oil sector and tourism, making them the slowest rebounders in the third quarter of 2020. Mexico recovered a little less than half, the best performer among the least rebounding. Those that improved the most are Brazil, Nicaragua, Colombia and Peru. 

The main risks to the 2021 improvement are: the evolution of the pandemic and vaccine availability; premature withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures; global financial conditions allowing access to cheap financing; and the upward trend in commodity prices.

The impact of the pandemic on the latin american economy

Vie, 10/30/2020 - 11:51 -- anegrete

The stoppage of economic activities, caused by the covid1 pandemic, seriously affected Latin American economies during the first semester of 2020, 8 years of production were lost.

On average, Latin America lost eight years of production, while China lost only one, the United States six and the European Union 11. China, Europe, Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Paraguay, Peru and the Dominican Republic imposed mandatory quarantine.

The economic outcome of the infection prevention policies has been strongly determined by the economic growth of the last decade. When economic dynamics are low, the fall, driven by the closure of internal and external economic activities, causes a large contraction measured in terms of years of product. If the dynamics are high, a large fall leads only to a low reduction in production.

Coronavirus, a greater risk to the world than to China

Lun, 03/16/2020 - 11:56 -- anegrete

On December 31, 2019, the coronavirus (COVID-19) appeared in Wuhan, China. While this explains the speed of the stock market fall, it is not enough to explain why it resembles the experience of the 2008 - 2009 crisis.
The impact that has been presented cannot be understood without understanding the importance of China in global value chains. China is the source of 5 branches of the world economy: pharmochemistry, automotive, aeronautics, electronics and telecommunications.
What is certain is that the uncertainty about the dynamics of the real economy has impacted on the expectations in the stock markets and on economic growth in the world. The reactivation of production, whenever it occurs, will be slower than the previous dynamics.


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