Between flames and submersion:
An assessment of climate change in 2025
Gabriela Ramírez[1] , OBELA[2]
According to Carbon Brief, an environmental advocacy group, 2025 should not exceed the high temperatures of 2024. However, the first half of 2025 brought several extreme weather events, exacerbated by global warming. This article will review these events and what comes for the rest of the year.
Figure 1. Average global temperature (1840-2025)
Source: Carbon Brief.
Figure 1 shows the sustained increase in heat anomalies since 1980. The most significant peaks have occurred in the last decade. Although temperatures in 2025 do not exceed the 1.5°C threshold, a significant red flag in the fight against climate change, as they did in 2024. The British group notes that the trend and, possibly, the acceleration of warming will cause the Earth to exceed this limit within the next five years.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, there is an 80% probability that at least one of the next five years will break the 2024 heat record and a 70% probability that the average temperature between 2025 and 2029 will be much higher than 1.5°C. Every increase in temperature, no matter how small, causes greater heatwaves, extreme rainfall, intense droughts, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising ocean temperatures, and sea level rise.
The northern summer was exceptionally hot in much of Europe. At the end of July, southern France suspended classes, Italy banned outdoor work during the hottest parts of the day, and Serbia had its hottest day since the 19th century. The south-east of the United Kingdom, as well as Paris, Rome, Milan, Sassari, Lisbon, and other cities in the Balkans, issued warnings about high temperatures. In early August, Spain had an unprecedented heatwave that lasted almost three weeks, with minimum temperatures of 25°C and maximum temperatures of up to 43°C.
High temperatures, combined with a lack of rain, dry out vegetation and turn it into the perfect fuel for forest fires. Europe suffered from wildfires burning nearly one million hectares in 2025, a record number. Spain and Portugal were the most affected by the fires, with 1% of the total area of the Iberian Peninsula completely burned in two weeks. According to World Weather Attribution, due to climate change, a 10-day episode of intense heat, such as that experienced during the fires, is highly likely to occur every 13 years. In an era without global warming, such an extreme event would occur every two millennia.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Canada is experiencing a constant and intense forest fire season, ranked as the second worst in its history. Since April, the fires have consumed almost 8 million hectares. In the United States, the flames have devastated 1.6 million hectares in the Pacific Northwest.
In Asia, the 2025 monsoon season arrived earlier than expected and with unusual intensity. The province of Punjab in Pakistan experienced a 73% increase in rainfall in July compared to the same month in 2024. In early August, Hong Kong recorded its highest August rainfall in 140 years, with 35.5 cubic centimetres of water in a single day.
In South America, water has caused damage throughout the region. Peru declared a state of emergency due to rainfall from December 2024 to April 2025. With nearly 50,000 people affected by the disaster, the damage to crops, businesses, and other economic activities has not yet been quantified. In Bolivia, autumn rains kept eight of its nine departments on red alert due to flooding, with the Amazon region being the most brutal hit. Ecuador, had a similar situation, with 15,000 hectares of lost crops and 130,000 people affected.
The United States had 1,434 flash flood warnings in July alone. Nine of its states have received 50% more rainfall than usual. In Mexico City, after three months of constant and intense rain from June to September, it broke its rainfall record after 73 years. On 2 September, it rained for 24 consecutive hours, resulting in just over 34 million cubic meters of water.
Finally, glaciers are melting at an ever-faster rate. According to the Global Glacier Monitoring Service, they are losing 270 billion tonnes of ice annually. Melting due to global warming has caused various disasters worldwide in 2025. In May, the collapse of the Birch Glacier buried the village of Blatten in southern Switzerland. In June and July, the overflowing of two glacial lakes caused flooding in Afghanistan and Nepal, respectively. The former suffered human and crop losses, while the latter saw the water destroy four hydroelectric projects.
Added to this are the differences in approach between the two major powers, which neutralise efforts to curb the global environmental crisis. While China has managed to improve its air quality thanks to its emissions control policies and the plateauing of its oil demand, the US Secretary of Energy has described climate change as "not that serious", the Paris Agreement as "silly", and is taking measures against renewable energies.
As the planet warms, the likelihood of prolonged heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and continued glacier melt increases. Forest fires have not stopped in Europe, the rainy season will continue until November in Mexico, and, as mentioned above, the ice is melting. We must not only consider slowing down the rapid advance of global warming, but also adapt to the new climatic realities.
